Tornado-Warning Performance in the Past and Future-Another Perspective

Brooks (2004) presents a provocative study of the quality of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings over the past 18 yr through the use of the relative operating characteristic (ROC) from signal detection theory (SDT; Swets 1973; Mason 1980). Primary conclusions, stated as a possible interpretation of plotted results, are that 1) "performance improved from the late 1980s . . . into the 1990s," 2) "the change from the early 1990s to the late 1990s is consistent with a change in the threshold at which decisions are made," and 3) "the primary effect was to improve POD with a small increase in FAR." Brooks sums up his analysis with "Performance in most of the 1990s represents a …